%0 Journal Article
%A GAO Chao
%A MEI Ya-dong
%A LV Sun-yun
%A WANG Yue
%A YUAN Jiang-bin
%T Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on AHP-Fuzzy Method: A Case Study on Hanjiang River Basin
%D 2014
%R 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.09.005
%J Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
%P 21-28
%V 31
%N 9
%X Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a basic metric for the evaluation of regional water resource security. Research on the theory and application of WRCC is of great significance. Through the factor analysis of WRCC based on DPSIR(Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework, we obtained a frame to primarily select indexes of four-level hierarchical structure, and constructed a comprehensive index system of WRCC. With Hanjiang River Basin as a case study, we assessed and predicted the WRCC by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy programming (Fuzzy) method. Results show that 1) in the absence of water transfer, the WRCC of the upper reaches of Danjiangkou  is superior to the other two districts; 2) in the presence of water transfer, the WRCC of each district varies under the influence of inter-basin water transfer, and they can be considered as reaching a basically loadable state.
%U http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.09.005