Abstract:

In this paper, the water supply risk in the area influenced by water transfer project was researched. Taking the middle route of the South to North Water Transfer Project as an example, we investigate the water supply risk in the source region of the project, which is known as the main stream area of middle and lower Hanjiang River. Firstly, we calculated the indicators of water supply risk. With reliability to define the risk probability level and vulnerability to define the water shortage severity level, we proposed a water shortage classification standard and hence classified the risk of water shortage. Furthermore, we calculated the risk sensitivity with water inflow, water demand, and water transfer as three main influencing factors. On the basis of this, we proposed some countermeasures to reduce the risks caused by the influencing factors, in particular, the countermeasures of emergency in dry season.

Key words: water transfer project, middle and lower Hanjiang river, risk analysis of water supply, countermeasures