Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (9): 21-28.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.09.005

• WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on AHP-Fuzzy Method: A Case Study on Hanjiang River Basin

GAO Chao1,2,MEI Ya-dong1,LV Sun-yun3,WANG Yue1,YUAN Jiang-bin1   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resource and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072,China;
    2.Power China Kunming Engineering Corproration Ltd.,Kunming 650051,China;
    3.Hydrology Bureau,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China
  • Received:2013-06-20 Revised:2014-09-04 Published:2014-09-01 Online:2014-09-01

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Abstract: Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a basic metric for the evaluation of regional water resource security. Research on the theory and application of WRCC is of great significance. Through the factor analysis of WRCC based on DPSIR(Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework, we obtained a frame to primarily select indexes of four-level hierarchical structure, and constructed a comprehensive index system of WRCC. With Hanjiang River Basin as a case study, we assessed and predicted the WRCC by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy programming (Fuzzy) method. Results show that 1) in the absence of water transfer, the WRCC of the upper reaches of Danjiangkou is superior to the other two districts; 2) in the presence of water transfer, the WRCC of each district varies under the influence of inter-basin water transfer, and they can be considered as reaching a basically loadable state.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, index system, analytic hierarchy process(AHP), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, inter-basin water transfer, Hanjiang River Basin

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