关键词: 年平均潮位, M-K检验, 小波分析, 滑动平均序列提取趋势项, 一致性修正

Abstract:

Mann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis and tendency item extraction from moving average series were utilized for the consistency analysis of annual mean tide level from 1956 to 2009 in Yangtze River estuary. Tianshenggang, Hupuzha(Zhaxia) and Wusong station were taken as case study. M-K test showed that there was an obvious rising tendency for the annual mean tide level at each station. MexHat wavelet function was utilized for the cycle analysis of annual mean tide level series, which showed that there were primary cycles of 17a, 16a and 16a in Tianshenggang, Hupuzha(Zhaxia) and Wusong station respectively. According to the tide level cycle, the moving average series of annual mean tide level at Tianshenggang, Hupuzha(Zhaxia) and Wusong station were calculated, and the tendency items were extracted to quantify the variation tendency of annual mean tide level series respectively. Furthermore, consistency correction was carried out on annual mean tide level series. The present research provided theoretical basis for the sustainable development of water resources in Yangtze River Estuary.

Key words: annual mean tide level , M-K test , wavelet analysis , extracting tendency item from moving average series , consistency correction